Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
